Championship Weekend

When it comes to football my first love, without a doubt, is definitely the college game.  But there is no mistaking the difference in quality between college and the NFL.  Furthermore, when the college bowl season kicks off one could argue the quality of the games drops off as teams lack motivation and are typically coming off a long layoff that kills any momentum and rhythm established over the course of the regular season.  Not the case with the NFL.  Teams that qualify for the NFL playoffs ratchet up the intensity and its quite obvious the best teams have risen to the top.

Both wild card weekend and the divisional round offer up some great games and moments.  This year alone the 7-9 Seahawks upset the defending Super Bowl champion Saints.  A Jets team beat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back weekends, something we'll touch on later.  And the darling of this year's playoffs, quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, has been absolutely lighting it up.  

Despite all the excitement of the first two playoff weekends, nothing compares to conference championship weekend.  I would even argue that the games are of higher quality and greater intensity than the Super Bowl.  NFL fans get to see four teams that are playing at the absolute peak of their game.  Knowing that they're only one win from the Super Bowl, desperation oozes through the skin of every player.  The aura and rabidness of the home team's stadium is felt by those watching from a couch or bar.  Vegas tightens its lines and any play can swing the momentum of the game in a profound way.

I don't pretend to be an expert and know as much about football as the casual fan does.  I think these weekend games are so close that I have been struggling who to pick as I thought about writing this column.  As I'm typing these words I still don't know who I'm going to pick.  All that takes us to this weekend's games.    I'll do my best to set them up and then offer a reason, however unscientific, as to why I'm picking who I'm picking.

The first Sunday game is a dream match up for the NFL.  It pits the Green Bay Packers versus their long time rival, the Chicago Bears, at Soldier Field.  These two teams have played each other 181 times dating all the way back to 1921.  No two teams have played each other more in the history of professional football.  What's even crazier is that they've only played each other once in the playoffs and that was 70 years ago when the Bears beat the Packers 33-14 a week after the Pearl Harbor attack.

The Bears have been written off since the beginning of the season but they continue to defy the experts and now find themselves playing the NFC championship game on their home turf.  The Packers were the preseason favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  The teams split the regular season series with each team winning on its home field.  As division rivals, both teams are incredibly familiar with each other and both teams play outside in cold weather cities.  It really doesn't get much closer than this.

I waffled back in forth all week and even thought about picking the Bears, a team that I have come to hate even though I live in Chicago, but I'm going with the Packers, 20-16.  It's hard for me to go against Aaron Rodgers the way he's playing right now.  On top of that, the Packer pass rush (see: Clay Matthews) should be able to get to Jay Cutler, who is only playing in his second career playoff game.  If the Packers front seven can outperform the Bears' offensive line and harass Cutler, I like the cornerback combo of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams to come up with a big play or two and help cement the Packers berth in Super Bowl XLV.

The AFC championship, Steelers versus Jets, doesn't have the same longtime rivalry as its counterpart but the game features two of the best defenses in the league.  (On a personal note, this game is a problem for me only because the Jets are the one team I hate more than the Bears and they're playing in this game.  The New York Jets???  Come on!  When anyone thinks New York football the Giants have to be the first team to come to mind.  I almost puked in my mouth when I saw the Empire State Building lit up green at the top.  That's not right, those colors are supposed to be blue and red for the Giants!  Unfortunately, Eli Manning did his own puking and my team was on the outside looking in after Week 17 despite going 10-6 in the regular season.)

The Jets traveled to Pittsburgh earlier this season, upending the Steelers 22-17 in Week 15.  It was a huge win for Gangreen (and the franchise's first ever in Pittsburgh) as they were coming off two straight losses where they scored a combined nine points.  What is more impressive, the Jets are the first team to beat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the same season since 2001 and they did it in the playoffs nonetheless.  

The Steelers earned a first round bye and met the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.  Whereas the division rival Packers and Bears have met once in the playoffs in the last 70 years, it seems like the Steelers and the Ravens always clash in the playoffs.  This year's game didn't disappoint.  Buoyed by a ball hawking defense in the second half, the Steelers were able to overcome a 14-point halftime deficit and beat the Ravens 31-24.  

Looking a little deeper into this clash, both teams benefit from playing in recent conference championship games, the Jets in 2010 and the Steelers in 2009, so the experience is there.  As already mentioned, both teams boast top flight defenses.  Need more similarities?  Both offenses are incredibly balanced in terms of employing the pass versus the run when they have the ball.  Over the course of the regular season, the Jets passed the ball 49.58% of the time.  The Steelers passed the ball 50.42% of the time.

For anyone who knows me, they can imagine how difficult it is for me to type the next sentence.  I am picking the Jets to win 24-20 and advanccccccc.  Sorry, I just came back to after passing out.  So yeah, I think the Jets are going into Pittsburgh and beating a Super Bowl winning quarterback on the road for the third straight time.  That has to be a record.  If the Jets win this weekend they will have beaten quarterbacks who have won a combined six Super Bowls!  

While it makes me sick to pick the Jets to advance to Dallas, I see it happening for one reason - Rex Ryan.  I just think he's got this team believing they can beat anybody.  The teams match up so evenly that there has to be some intangible that puts one of them over the top.  Rex's antics might prove to be his downfall at some point in the future but for now he's got a locker room that's bought into what he's selling.

So I'm predicting and all green Super Bowl - Packers vs. Jets.  The Packers, like the 2007 Giants, seem to be a team of destiny.  I can only hope they break the hearts of that lesser team from New York and their fans.

No Taming Tiger in 2011

Today is a great day for me.  The 2011 PGA Tour opens at Kapalua Resort with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  (I've got my fantasy golf lineup set and I'm ready to win it all this year.)  This weekend's lineup  has a field of only 34 golfers because the competition pays homage to the Tour's previous season's winners.  Tiger Woods hasn't played in the season's opener since 2005, more recently saving his first tournament of the year for the Buick Invitational at the end of January.  However, even if he wanted to, Tiger Woods would not be able to play in Hawaii this weekend because for the first time in his career he went winless on the PGA Tour.

Tiger's personal problems in 2010 have been covered ad nauseum and, while I do not agree with his actions, I am someone who believes that that is part of his private left and should be left alone.  I also believe that the off-the-course distractions affected his game and were a major factor in his performance or lack thereof.

The intense practice sessions and dedication to the game of the world's greatest golfer are well documented.  Tiger's obsession with catching Jack Nicklaus drove him towards 12-hour practice days, hitting countless golf balls, practicing every imaginable shot, and even introducing a focus on fitness and exercise rarely seen from golfers who proceeded him.  But with everything going on in his personal life, Tiger wasn't able to dedicate himself to the game as he had done his entire life.  He attempted to fix his personal life and his family at the expense of his success on the course.

But now the divorce is final and the hatchet buried.  For the first time since the 2007 offseason, Tiger was healthy enough and void of any personal strife where he could employ the practice habits and focus that led to 14 major championships and 71 career victories.  I can only hope that means one thing - Tiger is ready to take the 2011 season by storm.  I can't imagine Tiger was too happy about going winless last season despite all the personal distractions and he will be expecting to pass Jack in career victories (73) and pull closer in major victories (18) during the 2011 season.

A lot of comparisons have been made between Tiger Woods and Michael Jordan, namely that both are completely obsessed with winning.  I'm going to go ahead and make another comparison that probably turns out to be a little bit of a bold prediction.

Let me set the scene a bit:  After dominating the NBA from 1987 to 1993, winning three straight titles and three MVPs, Michael Jordan left basketball to play professional baseball for a season and a half.  He returned to the NBA in March of 1995 and bowed out to the eventual Eastern Conference champions in the second round of the playoffs.  Jordan and the Bulls weren't just weren't able to form the chemistry that develops over an 82 game season.  Losing left a bad taste in Jordan's mouth and he and his team came back with a vengeance during the 1995-1996 season.  They won 72 games and captured the first of three consecutive championships, the Bulls second three-peat of the decade.

Enter Tiger.  Like Jordan, he dominated his sport for nearly a decade, winning an absurd 26.8% of the time he entered a tournament (Phil Mickelson is second all-time at 9%).  It might be a stretch but I'd like to attribute Thanksgiving 2009 through the 2010 season as Tiger's professional baseball moment - he just wasn't "there".  We all know how Jordan handled being eliminated by the Shaq and the Magic in 1995.  I think Tiger experienced something similar when he lost in a playoff to 2010 sensation Graeme McDowell at the season ending Chevron World Challenge.

Now for the prediction.  I think Tiger has a "Jordan-like" run over the next three years.  I'm talking big.  I'm looking for six wins this season, including at least one major - preferably a green jacket (he hasn't won at Augusta since 2005).  I expect him to surpass Sam Snead's all-time wins record (82) in 2011 finishing the season with 84 career victories.  For those who are counting that's seven more wins in 2011.  While I think it will be difficult for him to pass Jack in the next three years, I expect him to enter the 2014 PGA season with 18 total majors - again, that's 4 more majors over the next three seasons (a career total for pretty much any other golfer).  At 38, I would imagine Tiger has three or four solid seasons to win the record-breaking 19th major.

Look, Tiger didn't all of a sudden forget how to play golf.  Like Jordan, the chemistry just wasn't there in 2010.  With the divorce behind him, I expect Tiger's focus and dedication to be back.  Sunday afternoons just aren't the same with Tiger not in contention and I am excited to get those Sunday afternoons back this year because I suspect he will be in contention more often than not.