Both wild card weekend and the divisional round offer up some great games and moments. This year alone the 7-9 Seahawks upset the defending Super Bowl champion Saints. A Jets team beat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back weekends, something we'll touch on later. And the darling of this year's playoffs, quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, has been absolutely lighting it up.
Despite all the excitement of the first two playoff weekends, nothing compares to conference championship weekend. I would even argue that the games are of higher quality and greater intensity than the Super Bowl. NFL fans get to see four teams that are playing at the absolute peak of their game. Knowing that they're only one win from the Super Bowl, desperation oozes through the skin of every player. The aura and rabidness of the home team's stadium is felt by those watching from a couch or bar. Vegas tightens its lines and any play can swing the momentum of the game in a profound way.
I don't pretend to be an expert and know as much about football as the casual fan does. I think these weekend games are so close that I have been struggling who to pick as I thought about writing this column. As I'm typing these words I still don't know who I'm going to pick. All that takes us to this weekend's games. I'll do my best to set them up and then offer a reason, however unscientific, as to why I'm picking who I'm picking.
The first Sunday game is a dream match up for the NFL. It pits the Green Bay Packers versus their long time rival, the Chicago Bears, at Soldier Field. These two teams have played each other 181 times dating all the way back to 1921. No two teams have played each other more in the history of professional football. What's even crazier is that they've only played each other once in the playoffs and that was 70 years ago when the Bears beat the Packers 33-14 a week after the Pearl Harbor attack.
The Bears have been written off since the beginning of the season but they continue to defy the experts and now find themselves playing the NFC championship game on their home turf. The Packers were the preseason favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The teams split the regular season series with each team winning on its home field. As division rivals, both teams are incredibly familiar with each other and both teams play outside in cold weather cities. It really doesn't get much closer than this.
I waffled back in forth all week and even thought about picking the Bears, a team that I have come to hate even though I live in Chicago, but I'm going with the Packers, 20-16. It's hard for me to go against Aaron Rodgers the way he's playing right now. On top of that, the Packer pass rush (see: Clay Matthews) should be able to get to Jay Cutler, who is only playing in his second career playoff game. If the Packers front seven can outperform the Bears' offensive line and harass Cutler, I like the cornerback combo of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams to come up with a big play or two and help cement the Packers berth in Super Bowl XLV.
The AFC championship, Steelers versus Jets, doesn't have the same longtime rivalry as its counterpart but the game features two of the best defenses in the league. (On a personal note, this game is a problem for me only because the Jets are the one team I hate more than the Bears and they're playing in this game. The New York Jets??? Come on! When anyone thinks New York football the Giants have to be the first team to come to mind. I almost puked in my mouth when I saw the Empire State Building lit up green at the top. That's not right, those colors are supposed to be blue and red for the Giants! Unfortunately, Eli Manning did his own puking and my team was on the outside looking in after Week 17 despite going 10-6 in the regular season.)
The Jets traveled to Pittsburgh earlier this season, upending the Steelers 22-17 in Week 15. It was a huge win for Gangreen (and the franchise's first ever in Pittsburgh) as they were coming off two straight losses where they scored a combined nine points. What is more impressive, the Jets are the first team to beat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the same season since 2001 and they did it in the playoffs nonetheless.
The Steelers earned a first round bye and met the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round. Whereas the division rival Packers and Bears have met once in the playoffs in the last 70 years, it seems like the Steelers and the Ravens always clash in the playoffs. This year's game didn't disappoint. Buoyed by a ball hawking defense in the second half, the Steelers were able to overcome a 14-point halftime deficit and beat the Ravens 31-24.
Looking a little deeper into this clash, both teams benefit from playing in recent conference championship games, the Jets in 2010 and the Steelers in 2009, so the experience is there. As already mentioned, both teams boast top flight defenses. Need more similarities? Both offenses are incredibly balanced in terms of employing the pass versus the run when they have the ball. Over the course of the regular season, the Jets passed the ball 49.58% of the time. The Steelers passed the ball 50.42% of the time.
For anyone who knows me, they can imagine how difficult it is for me to type the next sentence. I am picking the Jets to win 24-20 and advanccccccc. Sorry, I just came back to after passing out. So yeah, I think the Jets are going into Pittsburgh and beating a Super Bowl winning quarterback on the road for the third straight time. That has to be a record. If the Jets win this weekend they will have beaten quarterbacks who have won a combined six Super Bowls!
While it makes me sick to pick the Jets to advance to Dallas, I see it happening for one reason - Rex Ryan. I just think he's got this team believing they can beat anybody. The teams match up so evenly that there has to be some intangible that puts one of them over the top. Rex's antics might prove to be his downfall at some point in the future but for now he's got a locker room that's bought into what he's selling.
So I'm predicting and all green Super Bowl - Packers vs. Jets. The Packers, like the 2007 Giants, seem to be a team of destiny. I can only hope they break the hearts of that lesser team from New York and their fans.
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