Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Looking Back... and Ahead

The NHL playoffs start today and for the fourth straight season they begin without the New York Islanders.  There was hope that the Isles would at least contend for spot in this year's postseason but a 1-17-3 stretch that lasted nearly two months erased any realistic chances of that playing out.  In fact, things were so bad that on December 16, 2010 I decided to write about it.  Coincidentally, that night the Islanders beat the Anaheim Ducks and went 8-2 over their next ten games.  That ten game stretch was part of a 24-15-7 run for the Islanders that was good enough for the second best record in the Eastern Conference over that time period.

Despite a 1-6-1 finish that removed some of the luster from the mid-season success, the Islanders and their fans should be excited about several things from the 2010-2011 season and hope that they carry over to next season.

The first thing that pops out to me is the team's offense.  Over the previous playoff-less seasons the Islanders finished 30th, 29th, and 21st in total goals.  The team continued the upward trend this year by potting 225 goals and finishing 15th in the league.  Perhaps more impressively, the Islanders led the entire NHL in shorthanded goals, scoring 15 while killing the man advantage (Frans Nielsen tied Bob Bourne's team single-season record with seven).

Goal scoring comes at a premium in the NHL these days.  One player reached the 50 goal plateau this year and only four more players were able to tally at least 40 goals.  Had John Tavares been able to score one more goal to bring his total to 30, the Islanders would've joined the Ducks as the only team in the NHL to have at least three players on the same team score at least 30 goals.  The increase in goals can be attributed to five key players -

1. Michael Grabner, a speedy winger picked up off waivers from the Florida Panthers before the season started, led all rookies in goals with 34 (including 6 shorties!).  Gremlin, as his teammates call him, was an exciting player for the Islanders this year and has an outside shot at winning the Calder Trophy, awarded to the league's top rookie.

2. Matt Moulson finished second on the Islanders in goals with 31.  After coming off his first career 30-goal season in '09-10, there was some doubt whether or not this former 9th round pick by the Penguins would be able to continue at that pace.  After getting this season's campaign off to a strong start the Islanders agreed to a 3-year contract that will keep Moulson with the team through 2014.  One can only expect his production to increase with the continued development of his pivot man, John Tavares.

3. Speaking of JT, the second-year player and first overall pick in 2009 lit the lamp 29 times for the Islanders this year.  Tavares is quietly making a name for himself in the NHL and was tied with Matt Duchene for tops in points (67) among the league's second year players.  With another summer of physical development and maturity ahead of him, 80+ points for the cornerstone of the franchise should not be out of the question.  In fact, he continues to be the most important player in the franchise's quest to gain respectability and I have a feeling he knows that.

4. Blake Comeau, another youngster in the Islanders system, set a career high with 24 goals in 77 games this year.  Comeau spent this season on the Islanders second line and provided great depth with his scoring.

5. Lastly, PA Parenteau rounded out the Islanders 20+ goal scorers by hitting the milestone in the 82nd game of the season.  A cast-off from the arch rival New York Rangers, PAP benefited greatly from playing alongside Tavares and Moulson this season. 

Beyond these five players the Islanders will need at least two more forwards to step up next season.  The most likely candidates are Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey, two third-liners who can add some solid depth behind the top two lines. 

Okie played in just 38 games this year after suffering a preseason shoulder injury and in those games he proved to be largely inconsistent.  He did manage to put up 20 points but that was a bit off the pace he set in '09-10 when he had 52 points in 80 games.  The Islanders need him to take advantage of a full training camp and be the power forward force they projected him to be when management drafted him with the 7th overall pick in 2006. 

The Islanders had high expectations for Bailey this year, who had 25 and then 35 points in his first two seasons in the NHL.  After a hot start with six points in the first five games, Josh Bailey went scoreless in his next 13 games and was sent down to Bridgeport as part of a wake up call for the 21-year old.  If anyone needs a great offseason its Bailey.  For the Islanders to be competitive they need production from a third-liner like him.

If these two players struggle, the Islanders may be forced to ask a lot from potential rookie Nino Niederreiter.  El Nino got a taste of the NHL at the beginning of the year, playing in 9 games (scoring a goal and recording an assist) before being sent back to the Portland Winterhawks to continue his development in the WHL.  The front office expects Nino to challenge for a spot on the 23-man roster for the '11-12 season and his size would be a welcomed addition to the roster.

These eight players, as well as Frans Nielsen (who happens to be considered among the league's top two-way centers), are a solid base for the Islanders.  As the current Blackhawks are proving, a team needs its stars but its the depth that makes the difference between making the playoffs (and winning the cup) and not making the playoffs.  I think Islanders fans should be excited about its top three lines.  There surely can be improvements to the offensive side of the roster and hopefully the Islanders can lure some veteran experience to its offensive corps in the offseason but if they fail to, having this core continue to grow together might end up paying big dividends two or three years down the line.

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